2026 United States Senate election in Iowa
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| Elections in Iowa |
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The 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Iowa. Primary elections will be held on June 2, 2026. Two-term Republican Joni Ernst, who was re-elected in 2020 with 51.8% of the vote, declined to seek reelection to a third term.[1]
Background
[edit]Since voting for President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, Iowa has trended increasingly Republican and is now considered a moderately to strongly red state at the federal and state level. Republican nominee Donald Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8 percentage points, and in 2024 grew his margin to 13 percentage points. Republicans control every statewide executive office (except the state auditor's office), majorities in both chambers of the state legislature, and the entire congressional delegation.[2]
Senator Joni Ernst was first elected in the red wave of 2014, defeating U.S. Representative Bruce Braley by about 8 percentage points. She was re-elected in 2020 defeating Theresa Greenfield by 6.5 percentage points in what was expected to be a dead heat.[3][4]
In May 2025, Ernst sparked controversy after replying to a constituent upset by thousands of preventable deaths resulting from Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act by responding, "Well, we all are going to die" during a town hall in north-central Iowa.[5]
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Jim Carlin, former state senator from the 3rd district (2017–2023) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[6]
- Ashley Hinson, U.S. Representative from Iowa's 2nd congressional district (2021–present)[7]
- Joshua Smith, former vice chair of the Libertarian National Committee (2022–2023) and Libertarian candidate for president in 2024[8]
Filed paperwork
[edit]- John Berman[9]
Potential
[edit]- Matthew Whitaker, U.S. Ambassador to NATO (2025–present), acting United States Attorney General (2018-2019), nominee for state treasurer in 2002, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014[10]
Declined
[edit]- Brenna Bird, Attorney General of Iowa (2023–present) (running for re-election)[11]
- Joni Ernst, incumbent U.S. Senator (2015–present)[1]
- Kari Lake, senior advisor to the U.S. Agency for Global Media (2025–present), nominee for Governor of Arizona in 2022, and nominee for U.S. Senate in Arizona in 2024[12]
- Zach Nunn, U.S. Representative from Iowa's 3rd congressional district (2023–present) (running for re-election,[13] endorsed Hinson)[14]
Endorsements
[edit]Jim Carlin
- State legislators
- Kevin Alons, state senator from the 7th district (2023–present)[15]
- Doug Campbell, state senator from the 30th district (2023–present)[15]
- Sandy Salmon, state senator from the 29th district (2023–present)[15]
- Samantha Fett, state representative from the 22nd district (2025–present)[16]
- Mark Cisneros, state representative from the 91st district (2021–present)[17]
Ashley Hinson
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021; 2025–present)[18]
- Terry Branstad, former U.S. ambassador to China (2017–2020) and governor of Iowa (1983–1999; 2011–2017)[17]
- U.S. senators
- Jim Banks, Indiana (2025–present)[19]
- Katie Britt, Alabama (2023–present)[19]
- Tom Cotton, Arkansas (2013–present)[20]
- Markwayne Mullin, Oklahoma (2023–present)[19]
- Tim Scott, South Carolina (2013–present)[20]
- John Thune, Senate Majority Leader (2025–present) from South Dakota (2005–present)[20]
- Jerry Moran, Kansas (2011–present)[20]
- Shelley Moore Capito, West Virginia (2015–present)[20]
- Dave McCormick, Pennsylvania (2025–present)[20]
- U.S. representatives
- Tom Emmer, House Majority Whip (2023–present) from MN-6 (2015–present)[19]
- Zach Nunn, IA-3 (2023–present)[14]
- Steve Scalise, House Majority Leader (2023–present) from LA-1 (2008–present)[19]
- Elise Stefanik, NY-21 (2015–present)[19]
- Mariannette Miller-Meeks, IA-1 (2023–present), IA-2 (2021–2023)[21]
- State legislators
- Bobby Kaufmann, majority leader of the Iowa House of Representatives (2025–present) from the 82nd district (2013–present)[19]
- Organizations
Fundraising
[edit]Italics indicate a declined candidate.
| Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Jim Carlin (R) | $125,401 | $124,689 | $711 |
| Ashley Hinson (R) | $3,212,895 | $1,087,489 | $2,125,405 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[23] | |||
Polling
[edit]Hypothetical polling
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Bob Krause, former state representative from the 7th district (1973–1978) and perennial candidate[25]
- Nathan Sage, market director for KNIA[26]
- Richard Sherzan, former state representative from the 63rd district (1979–1981) and candidate for U.S. Senate in Arizona in 2016 and 2018[27]
- Josh Turek, state representative from the 20th district (2023–present)[28]
- Zach Wahls, state senator from the 43rd district (2019–present) and former Senate Minority Leader (2020–2023)[29]
Withdrawn
[edit]- Jackie Norris, chair of the Des Moines school board and former Chief of Staff to the First Lady of the United States (2009–2011)[30]
- J. D. Scholten, state representative from the 1st district (2023–present) and nominee for Iowa's 4th congressional district in 2018 and 2020 (endorsed Turek)[31]
Declined
[edit]- Rob Sand, Iowa Auditor of State (2019–present) (running for governor)[32]
Endorsements
[edit]Nathan Sage
- Executive branch officials
- Robert Reich, United States Secretary of Labor (1993–1997)[33]
Josh Turek
- Statewide officials
- Sally Pederson, former lieutenant governor of Iowa (1999–2007)[34]
- Tom Miller, former attorney general of Iowa (1979–1991, 1995–2023)[15]
- State legislators
- Michael Gronstal, former majority leader of the Iowa Senate (2006–2017) from the 8th district (1985–2017)[35]
- Molly Donahue, state senator from the 37th district (2023–present)[36]
- Robert Dvorsky, former state senator from the 37th district (1995–2019)[36]
- Pam Jochum, former president of the Iowa Senate (2013–2017)[36]
- Art Staed, state senator from the 40th district (2025–present)[36]
- 18 state representatives[b]
- Local officials
- Dave Muhlbauer, Crawford County supervisor[37]
- Matt Walsh, mayor of Council Bluffs (2014–present) (Republican)[35]
- Organizations
- Heat and Frost Insulators Local 39[38]
Zach Wahls
- U.S. representatives
- Dave Loebsack, IA-2 (2007–2021)[39]
- Statewide officials
- Howard Dean, former governor of Vermont (1991–2003) and chair of the DNC (2005–2009)[39]
- Patty Judge, former lieutenant governor of Iowa (2007–2011)[39]
- Jason Kander, former secretary of state of Missouri (2013–2017)[40]
- State legislators
- Liz Bennett, state senator from the 39th district (2023–present)[39]
- Matt Blake, state senator from the 22nd district (2025–present)[39]
- Ken Croken, state representative from the 97th district (2023–present)[39]
- Daniel Gosa, state representative from the 81st district (2025–present)[39]
- David Jacoby, state representative from the 86th district (2003–present)[36]
- Izaah Knox, state senator from the 17th district (2023–present)[39]
- Jean Hall Lloyd-Jones, former state senator from the 23rd district (1987–1995)[39]
- Jim Lykam, former state senator from the 45th district (2017–2023)[39]
- Liz Mathis, former state senator from the 34th district (2011–2023)[39]
- Richard Myers, former state representative from the 30th district (1994–2003)[39]
- Notable individuals
- Tim Dwight, former NFL and University of Iowa football player[39]
- Labor unions
- Communications Workers of America Local 7110[34]
- Ironworkers Locals 67, 89 & 111[34][41][42]
- International Association of Fire Fighters Local 610[43]
- Teamsters Local 90[36]
- United Food and Commercial Workers Local 1846[40]
- Heat and Frost Insulators Local 81[38]
- Organizations
Jackie Norris (withdrawn)
- Statewide officials
- Sally Pederson, former Lieutenant Governor of Iowa (1999–2007)[43]
- State legislators
- Tony Bisignano, state senator from the 15th district (2015–present)[43]
- Claire Celsi, state senator from the 16th district (2019–2025) (deceased)[43]
- Local officials
- Connie Boesen, mayor of Des Moines (2024–present)[43]
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Nathan Sage (D) | $1,119,898 | $851,129 | $268,769 |
| Josh Turek (D) | $1,008,592 | $356,611 | $651,981 |
| Zach Wahls (D) | $1,303,295 | $718,251 | $585,045 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[23] | |||
Libertarian primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Thomas Laehn, Greene County Attorney[45]
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Thomas Laehn (L) | $29,285 | $26,910 | $2,375 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[23] | |||
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections[46] | Likely R | August 28, 2025 |
| The Cook Political Report[47] | Likely R | October 14, 2025 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[48] | Likely R | August 12, 2025 |
| Race To The WH[49] | Lean R | September 4, 2025 |
Polling
[edit]Hypothetical polling
Joni Ernst vs. Jackie Norris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Jackie Norris (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[50][A] | August 18–19, 2025 | 572 (V) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
Joni Ernst vs. Nathan Sage
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Nathan Sage (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[50][A] | August 18–19, 2025 | 572 (V) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
Joni Ernst vs. Josh Turek
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Josh Turek (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[50][A] | August 18–19, 2025 | 572 (V) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
Joni Ernst vs. Zach Wahls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Zach Wahls (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[50][A] | August 18–19, 2025 | 572 (V) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
Joni Ernst vs. Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[51][52][B] | June 2–3, 2025 | 568 (V) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c d e f Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^
- Jerome Amos Jr., state representative from the 62nd district (2023–present)[36]
- Austin Baeth, state representative from the 36th district (2023–present)[36]
- Sean Bagniewski, state representative from the 35th district (2023–present)[36]
- Timi Brown-Powers, state representative from the 61st district (2015–present)[36]
- Sue Cahill, former state representative from the 52nd district (2021–2025)[36]
- John Forbes, former state representative from the 44th district (2013–2025)[36]
- Ruth Ann Gaines, state representative from the 33rd district (2011–present)[36]
- Charles Isenhart, former state representative from the 72nd district (2009–2025)[36]
- Monica Kurth, state representative from the 98th district (2023–present)[36]
- Mary Madison, state representative from the 31st district (2023–present)[36]
- Larry McBurney, state representative from the 44th district (2025–present)[36]
- Charlie McConkey, former state representative from the 15th district (2015–2023)[36]
- Amy Nielsen, state representative from the 85th district (2017–present)[36]
- Kirsten Running-Marquardt, Linn County supervisor (2023–present) and former state representative from the 69th district (2009–2023)[36]
- Sami Scheetz, Linn County supervisor (2025–present) and former state representative from the 78th district (2023–2025)[36]
- J. D. Scholten, state representative from the 1st district (2023–present)[31]
- Mark Smith, former state representative from the 71st district (2001–2021) and former chair of Iowa Democratic Party (2020–2021)[36]
- Sharon Steckman, former state representative from the 59th district (2009–2025)[36]
- Elizabeth Wilson, state representative from the 73rd district (2023–present)[36]
- Adam Zabner, state representative from the 90th district (2023–present)[36]
Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ a b Jacobs, Jennifer (September 2, 2025). "Joni Ernst announces retirement from Senate in 2026, pledges ongoing community involvement". KGAN. Retrieved September 2, 2025.
- ^ Ta, Linh (November 6, 2024). "Iowa remains solidly Republican". Axios. Retrieved December 13, 2024.
- ^ Barrett, Ted (November 5, 2014). "Joni Ernst wins Iowa Senate race". CNN. Retrieved December 13, 2024.
- ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (November 2, 2020). "'Six more years!': Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst wins reelection, beating Democrat Theresa Greenfield". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved December 13, 2024.
- ^ "MSN". www.msn.com. Retrieved June 3, 2025.
- ^ Hayworth, Bret (April 16, 2025). "Iowa politics: Republican Jim Carlin announces U.S. Senate campaign". KCCI. Retrieved September 3, 2025.
- ^ Richards, Zoë (September 2, 2025). "GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson announces Senate bid for open Iowa seat". NBC News. Retrieved September 2, 2025.
- ^ Belin, Laura (December 9, 2024). "Joshua Smith to challenge Joni Ernst in GOP primary". Bleeding Heartland. Retrieved December 10, 2024.
- ^ "BERMAN, JOHN - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. January 1, 2019. Retrieved May 16, 2025.
- ^ Bowman, Bridget; Kamisar, Ben; Allen, Jonathan; Welker, Kristin (August 29, 2025). "Republican Sen. Joni Ernst won't seek re-election in Iowa in 2026". NBC News. Retrieved August 29, 2025.
- ^ Nir, David; Singer, Jeff (September 8, 2025). "Morning Digest: Kansas Republicans want to gerrymander. They have a few problems". The Downballot. Retrieved September 8, 2025.
- ^ Pfannenstiel, Sabine Martin and Brianne (January 27, 2025). "Donald Trump supporter Kari Lake postpones Iowa homecoming for MAGA event". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 1, 2025.
Speculation swirled among MAGA-minded Republicans in Iowa who suggested on social media that Lake would be a strong potential primary challenger to Ernst...Lake's spokesperson Alex Nicoll told The Arizona Republic after news of the event that she's not planning to be a political candidate.
- ^ Nir, David; Singer, Jeff (September 3, 2025). "Morning Digest: How Democrats can fight back against the Missouri GOP's new gerrymander". The Downballot. Retrieved September 3, 2025.
- ^ a b Pfannenstiel, Brianne (September 2, 2025). "Iowa Republican Ashley Hinson announces 2026 US Senate campaign". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved September 4, 2025.
- ^ a b c d "Former AG Tom Miller endorses Josh Turek in Iowa's Democratic Senate primary". The Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier. September 9, 2025. Archived from the original on September 9, 2025. Retrieved September 9, 2025.
- ^ Belin, Laura (September 7, 2025). "Ashley Hinson's Senate rollout: Short-term success, long-term risks". Bleeding Heartland. Retrieved September 7, 2025.
- ^ a b "U.S. Senate election endorsements". Ballotpedia. Retrieved October 24, 2025.
- ^ Fields, Ashleigh (September 5, 2025). "Trump endorses Ashley Hinson in Iowa Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved September 6, 2025.
- ^ a b c d e f g Steinhauser, Paul (September 2, 2025). "Republican rising star Ashley Hinson announces Senate bid in race to succeed Iowa's Ernst". Fox News. Retrieved September 3, 2025.
- ^ a b c d e f Markus, Nicole (September 5, 2025). "Republicans move quickly to support Ashley Hinson's Senate bid". Politico. Retrieved September 5, 2025.
- ^ "U.S. Senate election endorsements". Ballotpedia. Retrieved October 31, 2025.
- ^ "Maggie's List Endorses Hinson in Iowa, Noveletsky in New Hampshire". maggieslist.org. October 3, 2025. Retrieved October 24, 2025.
- ^ a b c "2026 Election United States Senate - Iowa". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved April 23, 2025.
- ^ "NEW POLL: Less Than Half of Iowa Republicans Support Joni Ernst for US Senate in 2026" (PDF). Victory Insights. December 9, 2024. Retrieved April 29, 2025.
- ^ "Bob Krause announces candidacy for U.S. Senate, endorses Bohannan in House race". KGAN. September 2, 2025. Retrieved September 2, 2025.
- ^ Smith, Allan (April 16, 2025). "Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst gets her first Democratic challenger for 2026". NBC News. Retrieved April 16, 2025.
- ^ Henderson, O. Kay (October 13, 2025). "Coralville Democrat says he'll run for US Senate in 2026". Radio Iowa. Retrieved October 15, 2025.
- ^ Opsahl, Robin (August 12, 2025). "Iowa Rep. Josh Turek, two-time Paralympian, launches campaign for U.S. Senate". KCCI. Retrieved August 15, 2025.
- ^ Koons, Cami (June 11, 2025). "Democrat Zach Wahls announces bid for U.S. Senate". Iowa Capital Dispatch. Retrieved June 11, 2025.
- ^ Gruber-Miller, Stephen (October 16, 2025). "DMPS Board Chair Jackie Norris ends US Senate campaign after superintendent arrest". The Des Moines Register. Archived from the original on October 16, 2025. Retrieved October 16, 2025.
- ^ a b Gruber-Miller, Stephen (August 18, 2025). "Democrat J.D. Scholten drops out of Iowa's 2026 US Senate race and endorses Josh Turek". The Des Moines Register. Archived from the original on August 18, 2025. Retrieved August 18, 2025.
- ^ Tallal, Skylar (May 12, 2025). "Iowa Auditor Rob Sand announces 2026 gubernatorial run". KGAN. Retrieved May 12, 2025.
- ^ Reich, Robert (September 11, 2025). "Democrats should forget about appealing to some mythical center - The Boston Globe". BostonGlobe.com. Retrieved September 29, 2025.
If it's to have a future, the Democratic Party must not only condemn Trumpism but explain why so many Americans are struggling and offer a credible path for most people to share in the nation's prosperity. That means forgetting about moving to the so-called center and instead embracing the passion, energy, youth, and big ideas of young Democrats like Zohran Mamdani in New York City and Senate candidates such as Graham Platner in Maine, Dan Osborn in Nebraska, Mallory McMorrow in Michigan, and Nathan Sage in Iowa.
- ^ a b c Opsahl, Robin (November 18, 2025). "Democratic U.S. Senate candidates Zach Wahls, Josh Turek tout new endorsements • Iowa Capital Dispatch". Iowa Capital Dispatch. Retrieved November 28, 2025.
- ^ a b "Charlie Kirk's group endorses Joe Mitchell in Iowa Republican Congressional primary". The Gazette. Retrieved December 8, 2025.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y Price, Dave (September 3, 2025). "Challengers tout endorsements amid major Iowa race shakeup". KWQC. Retrieved September 10, 2025.
- ^ Gruber-Miller, Stephen (October 28, 2025). "Democratic US Senate hopeful Josh Turek warns of 'farmageddon' driven by 'chaotic' tariffs". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2025.
Turek was joined on the call with Dave Muhlbauer, a Crawford County supervisor and former Democratic U.S. Senate candidate who has endorsed his campaign.
- ^ a b Opsahl, Robin (December 3, 2025). "Iowa Rep. Josh Turek, Sen. Zach Wahls receive union endorsements in U.S. Senate Democratic primary". KCRG. Retrieved December 4, 2025.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m "Campaign Almanac: Iowa Democrat Wahls announces slate of endorsements for Senate campaign". The Gazette. July 23, 2025. Retrieved August 29, 2025.
- ^ a b "Jason Kander, labor group endorse Zach Wahls for U.S. Senate". Globe Gazette. November 13, 2025. Retrieved November 16, 2025.
- ^ Woolard, Megan (August 18, 2025). "Wahls makes labor core tenet of U.S. Senate campaign". The Gazette. Retrieved September 10, 2025.
- ^ "Campaign Almanac: U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan endorses Joe Mitchell in Eastern Iowa Republican primary". The Gazette Archived. Retrieved November 25, 2025.
- ^ a b c d e Gazette-Lee Des Moines Bureau (September 15, 2025). "Campaign Almanac: Elections forecaster shifts Iowa U.S. House race toward Democrats as race takes shape". The Gazette. Retrieved September 18, 2025.
- ^ "Zach Wahls". Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs.
- ^ Foix, Chase (April 21, 2025). "US Senate hopeful speaks to Rotary Club of Sioux City". KCAU-TV. Retrieved August 7, 2025.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
- ^ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
- ^ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
- ^ "2026 Senate Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
- ^ a b c d Plascencia, Cesar (August 22, 2025). "Democrat Zach Wahls Performs Best Against Ernst in Potential Senate Matchups". Public Policy Polling. Retrieved August 25, 2025.
- ^ "Joni Ernst Unpopular, May Face Tough Reelection". Public Policy Polling. June 4, 2025. Retrieved June 4, 2025.
- ^ "Iowa Survey Results" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. June 4, 2025. Retrieved June 4, 2025.
External links
[edit]- Official campaign websites